Bottom Line
- US-Iran Escalation Hits Day 103 — Direct strikes on US Gulf bases and retaliatory hits on 20+ Iranian targets mark a dangerous new phase.
- RBA Pivot Narrative Hardens — NAB/CBA shift to "CUT" forecasts as AU GDP growth cools to 2.5% and property price corrections begin.
- Fed Transition Volatility — VIX spiked 11.5% as markets digest Kevin Warsh’s hawkish confirmation and Senate approval.
Fed & Rates
- Confirmation: Kevin Warsh confirmed by Senate to succeed Powell.
- Stance: Markets expect "Sound Money" hawkishness; first 100 days likely to focus on QT discipline.
- Market Reaction: NASDAQ repricing (−0.97%) as cheap liquidity hopes fade.
RBA & AU Economy
- Bank Pivot: NAB and CBA now forecast the next move as a CUT.
- Property Shock: Experts predict a 10% decline in capital city home values over the next year.
- Currency: AUD under pressure as safe-haven flows favor the USD.
Markets Snapshot
Brent Crude
$91.48 (+0.03%)