A massive "validation rally" in semi/tech indices following MSFT earnings has temporarily stabilized global sentiment, but the Iran war remains in a fragile tactical pause as Trump seeks a "rapid deal." The RBA remains the global hawkish outlier against a background of cooling US inflation.
Fed: 3 hawkish dissents at July FOMC. Warsh's Task Forces signal structural shifts away from forward guidance.
RBA: Market pricing 100% hold for August, but Governor Bullock's hawkish rhetoric suggests the risk of a surprise hike is underpriced.
Status: Tactical pause in US strikes. Hormuz remains "contested" but traffic is ticking up slightly to 14 vessels/day.
Escalation Hierarchy: Middle-East-wide strikes on Jordan and Kuwait desalination plants hit last week, crossing the civilian infrastructure red line. Risk remains CRITICAL despite current diplomatic opening.
| Index | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,489.72 | +0.70% |
| NASDAQ | 25,373.85 | +1.00% |
| SOX (Semis) | 11,311.08 | +8.19% |
| KOSPI | 6,595.45 | +17.91% |
| Brent Oil | $90.12 | -2.40% |
| Gold | $4,107 | +0.50% |
| Symbol | Price (USD) | Shares | Value (AUD) | P&L% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | $389.28 | 11 | A$6,099 | -6.27% |
| META | $556.71 | 18 | A$14,273 | -6.33% |
| MSFT | $464.72 | 30 | A$19,858 | +15.60% |
| RDDT | $140.67 | 69 | A$13,825 | -11.01% |
| TSM | $404.25 | 13 | A$7,485 | +2.95% |
| MU | $823.03 | 8 | A$9,378 | +22.36% |
| QQQU | $53.32 | 113 | A$8,582 | -53.00% |