Current: 3.50% - 3.75% | Next FOMC: Sep 16 | Chair: Kevin Warsh
The July FOMC (9-3 vote) cemented the hawkish regime. Three dissents for a hike + Warsh's explicit push to "deliver price stability" indicates a committee ready to tighten if inflation persists. Markets are pricing a 61% probability of a Sep hike.
Implication: Growth stock multiples remain under pressure as the "Fed Put" is officially off. Bond yields (10Y at 4.70%) reflect a higher-for-longer baseline.
Current: 4.35% | Next Meeting: Sep 29 | AU CPI: 3.8% (June)
RBA held in August but maintained a "patient but vigilant" posture. While CBA/Westpac forecast holds through 2026, the ASX Rate Tracker (Isaac Gross) shows a 0% probability of cuts before 2027. AUD/USD trading at 0.7153.
Property: National values down 0.7% (July). Sydney (-1.4%) and Melbourne (-1.2%) leading the rout. Mid-sized capitals (Brisbane -0.6%) have officially peaked.
Status: Qualitative shift to Economic Warfare. The Islamabad Memorandum is effectively dead. US Naval Blockade remains in force; Iran continues to contest Hormuz with "shadow tolls" and drone harassment.
Brent-WTI Spread: $5.53. Breaking back above the $5 threshold signals a renewed maritime risk premium. Houthi attacks on Saudi Red Sea infrastructure (Yanbu hub) have created a "Two-Chokepoint" crisis (Hormuz + Bab el-Mandeb).
| Symbol | Price | Day % | A$ Value | P&L % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO | $358.76 | -2.63% | $5,517 | -15.2% |
| META | $559.02 | +1.66% | $14,067 | -7.68% |
| MSFT | $487.31 | +0.84% | $20,438 | +18.9% |
| RDDT | $152.70 | -0.38% | $14,730 | -5.19% |
| TSM | $410.12 | -2.11% | $7,454 | +2.51% |
| QQQU | $55.10 | +0.07% | $8,705 | -52.3% |
| CBRS | $185.43 | -5.46% | $4,925 | -37.8% |
| MU | $910.43 | -5.83% | $10,182 | +32.8% |
| TSXU | $50.60 | -6.75% | $778 | -90.9% |
Total Portfolio (US): A$86,796 | Cost Basis: A$104,168 | P&L: -16.6%