Warsh Doctrine: The "Fed Put" is officially off. Tonight's Jackson Hole speech is the primary test of Warsh's purely data-dependent regime. Economists look for clues on the 2% target timeline as core PCE remains stuck at 3.3%. ECB (2.25%) and PBOC (3.0% LPR) remain in deep divergence cycles.
Inflation Surprise: July's 3.5% CPI (exp 3.3%) has forced ANZ and NAB to put "No Hike" calls under review. Underlyng inflation at 3.6% remains "intolerably high." Housing downturn has broadened, with national values falling -0.7% (Cotality), confirming the high-rate transmission to households.
Dual-Chokepoint Crisis: Brent-WTI spread at $5.14 signals persistent physical supply dislocation. While Oman-mediated "positive talks" were teased Aug 25, 3 ships were struck off the Iran coast this week. The Trump administration's "Economic D-Day" (declared Aug 19) is the new front—25% secondary tariffs on nations buying Iranian oil (targeting China) land as the 60-day ceasefire expired.
Decoupling Front: Aug 6 Polysilicon EO (15% tariff + $21/kg floor) targets China's 90% monopoly. Japan's Rapidus secured $4B additional funding (¥2.35T total) for 2nm production by 2027. TSMC Arizona yields improving; focus shifts to Xi's September US visit leverage-building.
| Instrument | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 7,730.99 | +0.72% |
| Nasdaq | 26,541.35 | +1.57% |
| SOX (Semis) | 11,882.17 | +2.33% |
| Kospi | 6,788.88 | -1.79% |
| ASX 200 | 9,092.30 | +0.60% |
| Brent Crude | $88.31 | -1.55% |
| Gold Spot | $4,657.30 | +1.03% |
| DXY | 99.22 | +0.06% |
| Symbol | Price (USD) | Value (A$) | P&L% |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU | $935.39 | $10,404 | +35.7% |
| MSFT | $505.06 | $21,067 | +22.6% |
| TSM | $427.30 | $7,723 | +6.2% |
| RDDT | $153.95 | $14,769 | -4.9% |
| META | $571.10 | $14,293 | -6.2% |
| AVGO | $371.54 | $5,682 | -12.7% |
| CBRS | $186.67 | $4,931 | -37.7% |
| QQQU | $57.11 | $8,972 | -50.9% |
| TSXU | $55.80 | $853 | -90.1% |
*Total Est Value: A$116.4k (incl. HK) | AUD/USD 0.7202