Macro & Geopolitical Intelligence

⚡ Bottom Line

• Warsh Fed Put is OFF — Jackson Hole keynote signaled Sept rate hike probability is now 57%.
• Iran War Day 184 — Strait of Hormuz contested; US tanker strikes on Friday signal kinetic escalation.
• KOSPI sub-7,000 — Semi-heavy index failed the 3-session hold test; regional contagion risk remains high.
• AU Inflation — Trimmed-mean stuck at 3.6%; Sept 29 RBA meeting remains a live hike event.

Fed Funds Rate3.50% - 3.75%

Sept Hike Prob57%

10Y Yield4.46%

Warsh Jackson Hole: "Responsibility for elevated inflation sits squarely with the Fed." Dot plot implies 3.8% year-end.

Cash Rate4.35%

CPI (July)3.5%

Trimmed Mean3.6%

AUD/USD0.7164

RBA considered hike in August; Sept 29 meeting live. AUD under pressure on resilient DXY.

StatusEscalation

Brent-WTI Spread$4.70

Hormuz StatusContested

US strikes on tankers Friday (Aug 28). Iran claims Hormuz closed; Trump claims total control. No Oman deal.

S&P 5007,731.0

SOX Index11,882.2

Kospi6,912.4

VIX14.51

Gold (Spot)$4,529.9

Symbol	Price (USD/HKD)	Shares	A$ Market Value	P&L% (A$)
MU	$935.39	8	$10,438	+36.2%
MSFT	$505.06	30	$21,133	+23.0%
TSM	$427.30	13	$7,747	+6.5%
AVGO	$371.54	11	$5,700	-12.4%
META	$571.10	18	$14,337	-5.9%
RDDT	$153.95	69	$14,815	-4.6%
CBRS	$186.67	19	$4,947	-37.5%
MiniMax (0100.HK)	HK$300.40	40	$2,135	N/A

Total Portfolio ValueA$108,825

Net ExposureSemi-Heavy / US-Concentrated

1. Kospi 6,500 Hold Test — Key support level for Asia open.

2. China Manufacturing PMI — Global demand signal.

3. ASX 200 Bank Rotation — CBA/NAB likely to lead on hike odds.

4. Iran Retaliation Signal — Post-tanker-strike posture.