Strategic Briefing

Macro & Geopolitical Intelligence

US close Mon 31 Aug | ASX close Mon 31 Aug · 06:30 AM AEST

Bottom Line

Iran War US Larak Island strike and Iran's multi-base retaliation (Jordan/UAE) ends month of calm. Escalation Day 186.

Trade War US 15% polysilicon tariff confirmed for Dec 4; secondary sanctions on Iran oil buyers looming.

RBA Outlook Sep hike probability at 34% (ASX Tracker) as underlying inflation remains persistent.

Markets Snapshot

S&P 500 7,686.14 -0.58%

NASDAQ 26,370.89 -0.64%

SOX (Semis) 11,535.05 -2.92%

Energy & FX

Brent Crude $92.11 +1.79%

AUD/USD 0.7148 +0.5%

Gold (Spot) $4,432.30 Record

Iran War — Day 186

Status: Escalation. US kinetic strikes on Larak Island launchers met with ballistic missile barrages against US/allied bases in Jordan and UAE. First direct territory hits in weeks.

Brent-WTI Spread: $4.29. Spread widening toward $5 will signal market belief in physical Hormuz chokepoint disruption.

Portfolio Performance (A$)

Symbol	Price (US$)	Daily %	A$ Value	P&L%
MU	958.73	+2.77%	10,729	+40.0%
MSFT	507.29	-1.22%	21,289	+23.9%
TSM	415.32	-0.53%	7,552	+3.9%
RDDT	147.81	-3.99%	14,267	-8.2%
META	572.34	-0.98%	14,411	-5.4%
AVGO	370.34	+0.42%	5,698	-12.4%

Total Market Value A$88,804.40

Cost Basis A$104,167.84