Bottom Line
- Warsh "Fed Put" is Dead: September hike probability at 60%; 10Y yield testing 4.8%.
- Iran Tanker War: US CENTCOM disables 3 IRGC oil tankers; physical supply premiums widening.
- RBA Hawk-Lock: July spending (+1.1%) and 3.6% inflation secure a Q4 hike path.
- KOSPI sub-7,000: Korea semi-regime remains bearish; regional contagion dragging ASX 200.
Markets Snapshot
S&P 500
7,718.60 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ
26,506.99 (-0.29%)
Nikkei 225
65,269.33 (-1.70%)
Kospi
6,954.52 (-0.58%)
ASX 200
8,920.80 (-1.00%)
Energy & Commodities
WTI Crude
$93.72 (+2.45%)
Brent Crude
$98.30 (+2.10%)
Gold (Spot)
$4,447.60 (+0.40%)
US 10Y Yield
4.784% (+2.2bp)
AUD/USD
0.7215
Iran War — Day 193
US CENTCOM disabled 3 Iranian oil tankers (Downy, Stark 1, Kylo) in retaliation for ballistic missiles fired at warships. Warsh regime treats oil spikes as inflation catalysts (hike odds), not rescue signals.
Taiwan Strait Watch
ELEVATED. CMC purges (Xi + 1 member) indicate total consolidation for high-readiness posture. Taiwan Han Kuang drills focused on unmanned swarm defense.
Portfolio Intelligence
| Symbol |
Price |
AUD Value |
Cost Basis |
P&L% |
| MU | $1016.59 | A$11,266 | A$7,665 | +47.0% |
| MSFT | $499.70 | A$20,767 | A$17,179 | +20.9% |
| TSM | $428.91 | A$7,724 | A$7,271 | +6.2% |
| META | $616.77 | A$15,380 | A$15,238 | +0.9% |
| RDDT | $154.46 | A$14,764 | A$15,537 | -5.0% |
| AVGO | $357.90 | A$5,454 | A$6,507 | -16.2% |
| CBRS | $210.05 | A$5,529 | A$7,922 | -30.2% |
| QQQU | $58.57 | A$9,168 | A$18,259 | -49.8% |
| TSXU | $56.73 | A$864 | A$8,591 | -89.9% |
Portfolio Grand Total (inc. HKEX)
A$117,939.59