Sovereign Intelligence

Macro & Geopolitical Briefing

US close Fri 4 Sep | ASX close Tue 8 Sep · 20:31 AEST
Bottom Line
  • Warsh "Fed Put" is Dead: September hike probability at 60%; 10Y yield testing 4.8%.
  • Iran Tanker War: US CENTCOM disables 3 IRGC oil tankers; physical supply premiums widening.
  • RBA Hawk-Lock: July spending (+1.1%) and 3.6% inflation secure a Q4 hike path.
  • KOSPI sub-7,000: Korea semi-regime remains bearish; regional contagion dragging ASX 200.
Markets Snapshot
S&P 500 7,718.60 (-0.38%)
NASDAQ 26,506.99 (-0.29%)
Nikkei 225 65,269.33 (-1.70%)
Kospi 6,954.52 (-0.58%)
ASX 200 8,920.80 (-1.00%)
Energy & Commodities
WTI Crude $93.72 (+2.45%)
Brent Crude $98.30 (+2.10%)
Gold (Spot) $4,447.60 (+0.40%)
US 10Y Yield 4.784% (+2.2bp)
AUD/USD 0.7215
Iran War — Day 193

US CENTCOM disabled 3 Iranian oil tankers (Downy, Stark 1, Kylo) in retaliation for ballistic missiles fired at warships. Warsh regime treats oil spikes as inflation catalysts (hike odds), not rescue signals.

Taiwan Strait Watch

ELEVATED. CMC purges (Xi + 1 member) indicate total consolidation for high-readiness posture. Taiwan Han Kuang drills focused on unmanned swarm defense.

Portfolio Intelligence
Symbol Price AUD Value Cost Basis P&L%
MU$1016.59A$11,266A$7,665+47.0%
MSFT$499.70A$20,767A$17,179+20.9%
TSM$428.91A$7,724A$7,271+6.2%
META$616.77A$15,380A$15,238+0.9%
RDDT$154.46A$14,764A$15,537-5.0%
AVGO$357.90A$5,454A$6,507-16.2%
CBRS$210.05A$5,529A$7,922-30.2%
QQQU$58.57A$9,168A$18,259-49.8%
TSXU$56.73A$864A$8,591-89.9%
Portfolio Grand Total (inc. HKEX) A$117,939.59