Sovereign Intelligence

Macro & Geopolitical Intelligence

US CLOSE THU 10 SEP | ASX CLOSE FRI 11 SEP · 20:30 AEST
Bottom Line
  • Chokepoint Crisis: Houthis have seized Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline, Mokha port, and Perim Island (Bab al-Mandeb), physically severing the "safe" alternative to Hormuz.
  • CPI Knife-Edge: Today's August CPI print (10:30pm AEST) is the final hurdle; Sep 16 hike odds have surged to 67.4% as the Warsh Fed enters a live hike window.
  • Aussie Hawkishness: RBA hike odds for Sep 29 have spiked to 66%; the housing downturn widened in August (-0.9%) as rate pressure hardens.
  • Portfolio Resilience: Grand total A$117,604 (+12.9% vs cost) despite sector-specific tech routs; MU +42% anchor remains structural.
🏛️ Fed & Rates
Fed Funds Range
3.50% – 3.75%
Sep 16 Hike Odds
67.4%
US 10Y Yield
4.938%
Implication: The Warsh transition is moving from rhetoric to reality. With 10Y yields approaching 5.0%, the "data-dependence" mantra has effectively outsourced policy to the BLS. Today's CPI is a live hike/hold decision.
🦘 RBA & AU Economy
RBA Cash Rate
4.35%
Sep 29 Hike Odds
66.0%
Monthly HVI
-0.9%

The Australian housing downturn has widened, with 93% of capital city suburbs recording falls. The RBA's Sep 29 meeting is now priced as a "more likely than not" hike meeting, a sharp shift from the dovish baseline of late August.

⚔️ Iran War — Day 196
Critical Risk
Brent Crude
$103.73
Brent-WTI Spread
$4.66

Status: Physical takeover of the Bab al-Mandeb strait by Houthi forces has effectively closed the Red Sea corridor. US CENTCOM has adopted a "3 tankers for 1 ship" retaliation doctrine, destroying 10 tankers this week.

Brent's technical correction below $107 masks the qualitative shift: Saudi Arabia's Red Sea export fallback is now under direct kinetic threat.
💼 Portfolio Intelligence
Symbol Price Change A$ Value P&L%
MU.NAS$977.41-4.9%$10,906+42.3%
MSFT.NAS$492.44+0.2%$20,604+19.9%
TSM.NYS$428.03-1.7%$7,761+6.7%
META.NAS$644.38-1.4%$16,177+6.2%
RDDT.NYS$155.34+6.1%$14,949-3.8%
AVGO.NAS$360.83-1.0%$5,536-14.9%
MU.NAS$977.41-4.9%$10,906+42.3%
QQQU.NYS$58.07-0.2%$9,152-49.9%
US Cost Basis
A$104,168
Grand Total (US+HK)
A$117,604
+12.9% VS COST
🔭 What to Watch
  1. US CPI Release: Friday 8:30am ET / 10:30pm AEST.
  2. BRICS Summit: Sept 12–13, New Delhi. Diplomacy vs escalation.
  3. Brent $100 Support: Technical hold test during weekend escalation.