US close Wed 23 Sep | ASX close Thu 24 Sep · 20:30 AEST
⚡ Bottom Line
Oil Reversal Snaps 5-Day Slide — Brent gapped up 5.5% in 24h to ~$105 following a deadly attack on an Indian bulk carrier and Iran's UNGA rejection of navigation rights.
30-Year Treasury Yield at 22-Year Highs — Yields hit 5.43% (2004 peak) as markets price in a 71% chance of an October Fed hike; US indices reversed sharply.
Xi-Trump Truce Extended for 2 Months — Shorter-than-expected extension to Jan 10 suggests Washington is maintaining "maximum pressure" leverage during Xi's state visit.
RBA 29 Sep Hike 96% Priced — Consensus among Big 4 banks and OIS markets for a 25bp hike next Tuesday as Bullock warns inflation remains "too high."
🏛️ Fed & Rates
Fed Funds Rate
4.00%
+25bp (Sep)
28 Oct Hike Odds
70.9%
vs 57.6% Mon
US 30Y Yield
5.43%
+3.3bp
Next FOMC
28 Oct 2026
Chair
Kevin Warsh
US 10Y Yield
5.131%
Market driver: Rising long-end yields driven by oil-fed inflation risks and AI-sector corporate debt issuance are crushing tech multiples (Nasdaq -1.13%).
🦘 RBA & AU Economy
Cash Rate
4.35%
Decision 29 Sep
29 Sep Hike Odds
96%
OIS Implied
AUD/USD
0.703
7-week low
Aug Cotality HVI
-0.9% MoM
July CPI
3.5% Headline
Next monthly CPI
30 Sep (August)
Universal housing downturn: 93% of capital city suburbs falling; Sydney values now 7.1% below Feb peak as mortgage rates stay prohibitive.
⛽ Energy & Supply Chains
Escalating
Brent Crude
$104.96
+5.5% (24h)
WTI Crude
$93.30
+1.2%
Brent-WTI Spread
$11.66
War High
Urals Oil
$109.69 (+$6 vs Brent)
US Diesel
Record ~$6.00/gal
The blowout in the Brent-WTI spread signals a deep dual-chokepoint physical crisis; Saudi reopening the East-West pipeline is the only major supply buffer remaining.
⚔️ Iran War — Day 209
Critical
Current Status
Escalation / Attack on Bulk Carrier
Incident
MV Cape Dao struck off Oman; 1 Indian sailor killed
Hormuz Throughput
1% of typical (1 vessel/day)
Straits.live Crisis Pressure
89 / 100
Direct strikes on commercial vessels killing mariners represent a qualitative threshold shift; US blames Iran while Tehran rejects UNGA pleas for navigation rights.
📊 Markets Snapshot
S&P 500
7,706.03
-0.75%
Nasdaq
26,936.04
-1.13%
VIX
16.31
+7.9%
Gold (Spot)
$4,263
-0.7%
ASX 200 (Thu)
8,702.40 (-0.72%)
KOSPI (Wed)
7,080.92 (+0.90%)
USD/JPY
158.78
Non-confirmation: Gold falling while oil rips suggests the current stress is a supply-side oil shock rather than a systemic risk flight.
💼 Portfolio Implications
Symbol
Price (USD)
Change
Value (AUD)
P&L
MU
$1,071.88
+?%
A$12,172
+58.8%
META
$744.10
+?%
A$19,013
+24.8%
MSFT
$500.59
-?%
A$21,318
+24.1%
TSM
$446.57
-?%
A$8,241
+13.3%
RDDT
$151.98
-?%
A$14,886
-4.2%
Grand Total (AUD)
A$124,153.78
Vs Cost
+19.2%
New record value: Driven primarily by AUD weakness (0.703) and MU's pre-earnings run (+58.8%); MU reports Wed 30 Sep - the largest idiosyncratic risk in the book.
🔭 What to Watch — Next 24 Hours
Xi-Trump State Visit (Fri) — Formal bilateral readouts and state dinner outcomes.
US New Home Sales — Real-time signal of high-rate absorption in the US economy.
Ukraine Energy Ceasefire — Monitoring for any Moscow response to Zelensky's "ready" signal.
ASX 200 Open (10am AEST Fri) — Likely gap down following US tech reversal (NQ -1%).