1HIGHTonight 10:00 AEDT — US ISM Manufacturing for October, then the US cash open at 01:30 AEDT. September printed 54.5 with input prices rising. The read to watch is the prices-paid component, not the headline: a strong number with rising prices is the stagflation-lite combination that keeps 73% intact and compresses multiples further. Then watch whether Friday’s AI rout follows through for a second session — a single bounce is noise, two sessions is a repricing.
2HIGHTuesday 2:30pm AEDT — RBA. 75.0% for +25bp to 4.85%, the highest cash rate since 2008. The move is priced; the tradeable risk is the statement. If Bullock repeats “a further period of subdued growth of aggregate demand is needed,” the market prices a sixth hike and the ASX banks sell off. A hold would move AUD 60–80 pips lower and rally front-end bonds hard. The ASX opens 10:00 AEDT into this with miners and gold stocks already weak.
3HIGHTuesday — US midterms, and the Iran decision path unblocks the morning after. Democrats are poised for their largest generic-ballot win since 2008; Senate toss-ups are breaking their way in Maine and Texas. The oil question is contestation, not outcome: a decisive result clears Washington to act on the post-election strike window it has already flagged to allies; a contested result freezes it and extends the premium. 4 November is the highest-risk single day of the quarter for the Brent front month.
4HIGHDoes Brent hold $105? — the cleanest test of whether the market believed the two-day plan. Jan27 Brent sits at ~$108.90 after a −4% session. A break below $105 says the market believes the reopening; a hold above $110 says it read condition six and priced a monopoly. Watch the Brent–WTI spread simultaneously: narrowing toward $5 is normalisation, widening through $10 is the dual-chokepoint read. And watch the front two months — if a two-day reopening were credible, Jan and Feb would collapse toward October 2027’s $90. They have barely moved relative to the back.
5MEDKOSPI and Taiex at 10:00 AEDT — the divergence is the indicator, not the level. Monday: KOSPI +2.24% on low-PBR rotation against Taiex −0.65% on AI cash burn. If Tuesday sees Korea down and Taiwan down together, the memory complex has cracked and the rotation was a one-day covering rally. If Korea holds up while Taiwan falls, it is a value rotation with legs. Kioxia −11% in Tokyo on NAND is the third leg to watch — storage weakness has not yet reached Samsung or SK Hynix.
6MEDFriday 6 November — US non-farm payrolls, consensus +55,000. Lands after the midterms and after the RBA, so it is the first clean read on whether December’s 73% survives Monday’s oil collapse. A soft number is the most plausible route to the hike being priced out; a firm one re-prices the whole curve. Note the sequencing trap: a weak payrolls print with oil still above $100 is a stagflation signal, not a rate-relief signal — with the Warsh put off, do not assume bad news is good news.
7MEDTuesday 10 November — the statutory rare-earth lapses, eight days out, even though the political truce runs to 10 January. Announcements 55–58, 61 and 62 and Ann. 70 expire; the extension covers the political understanding, not the legal instruments. Announcement 61’s 0.1% de-minimis reaches non-Chinese-made goods containing Chinese-origin rare earths — the clause that converts a China story into a global manufacturing story. Nothing in the current tape prices a two-track deadline.